| | April 13, 2005: Apple beats the Street yet again-- and the Street beats back. Meanwhile, the rumor mill is abuzz with whispers of new Power Macs slated for an intro at next week's NAB show, and Apple offers $30 back by mail to new subscribers of .Mac... | | |
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Great News, Big Money, Etc. (4/13/05)
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Okay, see, now that's more like it. When Apple announced its stunningly fantabulous Q1 earnings three months ago, we were more than a little alarmed to see the company's stock price actually go up in after-hours trading; everyone knows that whenever Apple beats analyst estimates and does better than anyone expected, its stock price traditionally drops a few points in an inexplicable but comfortingly familiar display of what leading economists have termed "wacky non-logic." So we're actually strangely relieved that AAPL shed another 44 cents after the bell tonight, despite the company reporting its best March quarter ever. It's just like coming home again.
But how 'bout them results, hmmm? According to Apple's official press release, the company raked in $290 million in net profits; that's over six times as much as it made in the year-ago quarter-- and just a hair shy of last quarter's best-ever numbers, despite the conspicuous lack of a Christmas in March. Moreover, it's a whopping 40ish percent better than the analyst consensus, and even over 13 percent higher than the most optimistic analyst prediction. Meanwhile, revenue followed suit, increasing by roughly 70 percent from a year ago to a hefty $3.24 billion.
And the good news just keeps on coming. There's far too much to cram it all in here, but a few highlights include 5.31 million iPods sold (yes, even more than last quarter's record-shattering holiday blowout); gross margins that, despite the introduction of low-cost offerings like the Mac mini and the iPod shuffle, went up instead of down; more Macs sold last quarter than in any other quarter in the past four years; over 60 percent growth in Japan and Europe; the best March quarter for education sales in half a decade; 70 percent U.S. market share for the iPod family, with the shuffle leading the flash pack with a 43 percent slice of the pie; and a cash stockpile that's now grown to over $7 billion, which means that Apple can finally buy Stefan Quandt! (Apparently the guy lives in Bad Homburg; with that much money, you'd think he'd at least move to Good Homburg.) All pretty nifty news for a Q2, seeing as the post-holiday quarter has always been Apple's weakest.
But if you're still hungry for some sort of vaguely comprehensible explanation as to why AAPL actually dropped following all this great news, Reuters has the goods: it's all about the next quarterly results. Apparently Wall Street dumped some shares because Apple's "revenue forecast for the current quarter was largely in line with Wall Street expectations rather than exceeding them." That's right, folks; the analysts were predicting $3.21 billion, and Apple said it'll probably pull in $3.25 billion instead. Why, that's only a piddling $40 million more than anyone expected! Never mind that Apple's guidance for actual profit is also over $32 million higher than the analysts had been predicting-- sell! SELL!!
Of course, all you folks are really waiting for is the announcement of the winner in our quarterly Beat The Analysts contest, so without further ado, we'd like to extend our congratulations to faithful viewer Charlie, whose guess of a Q2 profit of $289 million wasn't right on the money, but it was the earliest closest entry, so he takes home all the marbles. We'll be contacting him shortly about showering him in fabulous prizes. As for the rest of you, you beat the Street almost as much as Apple did; the analyst consensus was off by almost $94 million, while the BTA consensus (i.e. the average of all 368 entries) was $301.73 million-- far closer than the number those suits got paid to pull out of thin air. Ever considered a career in financial analysis?
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G5: Getting Off The Sauce (4/13/05)
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Okay, enough with the numbers game-- too much "gross margins" and "EPS guidance" and "net thingy per diluted whosis" always leaves us with a headache. We're really just not built to dwell on financial data like that; we'd much rather be daydreaming about new Power Macs just around the corner. Our own dual 800 MHz G4 is starting to feel really pokey by contemporary standards, and its SuperDrive appears to be dying, and since we never had time to figure out which fan blew and replace it, we have to run it with its side door open or else it turns itself off when it gets too hot. Plus we've had the thing for over three years, now, so we're probably due to replace it with the Latest and Greatest (or at least something Tardier and Slightly More Terrific). After all, we are professionals, here.
No, really. We are.
Honest!
Look, giggle all you want; it sounds a little odd to us, too, but the simple fact is, we use our Macs to make money, and since "they" say you have to spend money to make money, well, clearly that's a resounding mandate from "them" that we're due to blow a wad of cash on a new Power Mac. And we probably will-- just as soon as a new Power Mac is actually a new Power Mac, because the current line-up's starting to look a little stale. Other than the low-end single-processor 1.8 GHz model that got slapped together in October, Apple is still shipping Power Macs that came out... what, last June or something, right? So those puppies are due for a refresh any day now.
But when, exactly? Well, Think Secret ("Lawsuit? What lawsuit?") reports that Apple has some tweaked Power Macs waiting in the wings for a big debut at next week's National Association of Broadcasters conference, which makes perfect sense, because if anyone needs more horsepower, it's those broadcaster fellas with all their video compression and whatnot. "Details are scarce" (the better to avoid further litigation, my dear), so no one's sure whether the upcoming Power Macs will boast the new dual-core 970MP processor, the new single-core 970GX, or both; in any case, however, the new G5s will reportedly run cool enough that Apple can finally "do away with the complicated and expensive liquid-cooling system featured in high-end Power Mac G5s right now."
That's a good thing-- both because it'll lower the cost of top-of-the-line Power Macs, but also because we've always been a little leery of sticking a bunch of liquid-pumping hoses inside a Mac amid a mine field of delicate and decidedly unwaterproof components. And apparently we're right to worry, since faithful viewer frozen tundra tipped us off to an AppleInsider article which claims that the liquid-in-hoses cooling apparatus has been a "topic of concern at several Apple exec meetings"; it seems that the manufacturer of the liquid-cooling rigs "only guarantees the cooling systems to Apple for a period of 2.5 years, though the expected life-span of each unit is rumored to be closer to 2 years"-- meaning that is you own a dual 2.5 GHz G5 unit, you may well want to spring for AppleCare coverage before your warranty is up, in case you experience "leakage of the thermal conductive fluid" inside your Mac, which Apple worries "could cause damage to consumers' valuables or expensive carpets." (We have it on good authority that a little club soda will get that right out.)
So: faster G5s, without any of that tedious mucking about with Mystery Coolants pumping through hoses? Sign us up! Here's hoping that the rumors are correct and we can all look forward to a little more new hardware next week. And a lot more debt.
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Oooh, We Feel So DIRTY (4/13/05)
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Still not a member of .Mac? Well, we can't exactly say we're surprised; most people think of the service primarily as an email account and web space, which they consider to be grossly overpriced at $99.95 per year-- and if that were really all .Mac had to offer, we'd have to agree, especially considering the periodic complaints from users about .Mac email's reliability (or notorious lack thereof). Free, reliable email accounts are abundant; free, reliable web space is pretty easy to come by, too. So why pay Apple a hundred clams a year?
But we do subscribe, actually, and while we enjoy the convenience of niceties like integrated and streamlined iPhoto-to-web publishing, for our money, .Mac's real value comes from being able to sync Address Books, iCal calendars, and Safari bookmarks from Mac to Mac, and also to the Internet for online access from any 'net-connected computer. And once Tiger ships in a couple of weeks, .Mac syncing will be even more tightly integrated into the operating system and will also allow the syncing of more data, like Mail accounts and settings. Not that the more obvious .Mac features like HomePage and iDisk aren't convenient, of course, but it's the simple synchronization of data across multiple Macs that keeps us shelling out the moolah every September.
Now, if you're considering giving .Mac a second look, this is as good a time as any-- better, even, since Apple has just launched a new promotion: sign up for a year of .Mac, and you can get $30 back by mail. That seems to be a particularly good deal in light of the fact that Amazon.com is currently selling the .Mac retail boxed edition for $77.99-- with free shipping, to boot. After the rebate, that means your first year of .Mac would cost just $47.99, or less than half-price. That may even be low enough to get a few diehard .Mac skeptics to give it a whirl for a year just to see what all the fuss is about.
"But AtAT," you ask, "isn't all this just a shamelessly transparent attempt on your part to cash in on referrals of Amazon-sold .Mac subscription kits?" Well, duh. You did just hear us talking about wanting to buy a new Power Mac, right? Since we've been assured repeatedly that money does not, in fact, grow on trees, we figured we'd raise the funds by pimping Apple's Internet subscription services, using the newly-announced $30 rebate promotion as a convenient excuse to shove .Mac down as many throats as possible. Which isn't to say that we don't think it's a great service; it is. Just like the Mac itself, .Mac may not be for everyone, but we suspect it's for a lot more people than are actually giving it a chance. So do the research, and if you decide that .Mac might be worth trying, don't forget to cut us in on the deal, okay? Baby needs a new pair of processors.
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