Ah, Wall Street-- the place where fortunes are determined as were victories in naval battles of old: they're won and lost due to tricks of the wind. The wind on Wall Street, though, is the hot air whispering through the rumor mill, and if you want a textbook illustration of just how strongly unsubstantiated rumors can affect a stock's performance, look no further than AAPL. In the past week and a half-- ever since the rumors of P1's development difficulties and potential scrapping-- Apple's stock has tumbled steadily. Sure, it's not the only tech stock to have taken a beating last week, but its decline wasn't just due to general tech concerns. Eventually Apple's stock fell from around 49 to about 42.

Then yesterday, suddenly AAPL jumped nearly three points to close at over 45. The catalyst for this change wasn't an official Apple product announcement or even the PC Data report that the iMac was back in the retail Top 5; according to a Reuters report, the "shift of the wind" was actually a statement by a Salomon Smith Barney analyst to the effect that he thinks the P1 is still likely to be unveiled at Steve Jobs' Macworld Expo keynote address. Richard Gardner reported to his clients that, as far as his firm was concerned, the P1 is still "on track" for a July announcement. In addition, he also stated once again that Salomon Smith Barney's target price for AAPL is $55 and the stock is still rated as a "buy." Boinggg! Instant stock rebound.

Apple, for its part, still isn't saying much about the P1 and the rumors of delays-- the company doesn't comment on unannounced products or rumors. However, spokesperson Natalie Welch had a little more than the usual "no comment" we've all come to expect. According to Natalie, "We announced [the P1] a while ago, saying we would announce it in 1999." (You just have to love it when announcements get their own announcements.) Beyond that, she mentioned that the product will in fact be released in 1999. Precisely when in 1999 is up in the air, of course, but we hear that Apple is pushing hard for availability no more than thirty days after the product announcement. And given the latest rumors at O'Grady's PowerPage that the biggest problems with the P1's ASICs have been fixed, it sounds like there's a good chance that there may be a huge P1 buying frenzy this August. Get ready to spend.

Speaking of unsubstantiated rumors, our buddy John Farr over at AppleLinks forwarded us a doozy: apparently our plans to camp out for good keynote seats at the Javits Center may have to be adjusted slightly. If AppleLinks' "source close to Apple" is correct, come July 21st, Jobs and his entourage won't be staging the keynote address at the Javits Center after all-- instead, the whole dog and pony show will be relocated to 30 Rockefeller Plaza, presumably in hopes of turning the event into even more of a media circus than it already was going to be. Hey, no problem; we don't mind camping out at 30 Rock instead, and we'll probably just hoof it back to the Javits Center afterwards instead of contending with the inevitable bloody fights for cabs. (We're getting a little rusty with the flick knife in our old age.)

The big question, though, is why does Steve want to deliver his address from a more media-accessible stage? Sure, the more free advertising the better, and the P1 will soak up any media attention that gets thrown its way, and if that's all there was to the rumor, then we'd be satisfied. But what's sticking in our collective AtAT craw is AppleLinks' contention that the relocation is due to a "major non-Mac move by Apple." A non-Mac move? Is it just us, or does that sound at least vaguely ominous, if not downright scary? Here we thought the big news at the Expo would be the unveiling of the P1, but the P1 is most definitely a Mac through and through, and now we're wondering what this bigger news could be. Likely there's no cause for actual alarm, but we've just been hearing those "Apple-branded Wintel boxes" rumors for too many years, so we're a bit spooked nonetheless.

Anyway, at this point, the entire keynote relocation thing appears to be a single-source rumor, so don't start setting up your tent in Rockefeller Plaza just yet. (Then again, that's just what we'd want to tell you if we wanted the best spot for ourselves, so do what you will.) We're going to wait until the Expo folks officially post a change of venue before we start freaking out over what this enormous "non-Mac" announcement could be, but the first two words that pop into our heads are "Oracle" and "Palm..."

Those of us who were hoping against hope for a big surprise Palm announcement at the upcoming Expo are probably going to be sorely disappointed. Ever since the Newton got the axe a while back, some of us have been waiting impatiently for the "Mac OS-based handheld" that was promised as a replacement. At this point, knowing that Apple tried to buy Palm and that the two companies are collaborating on something secret, we have to assume that whatever handheld Apple does finally ship is much more likely to be PalmOS-based instead, and at this point that's just fine with us-- we just want to see what the two companies can come up with when they put their heads together. And now that there's this rumor about a big "non-Mac" announcement at Jobs' upcoming keynote address, some kind of Palm announcement at first seemed likely.

But CNET had to go and spoil the fun by reporting that the whole project has been back-burnered; we'll forgive them, though, because the info they provide about the alleged Apple-Palm handheld is valuable, if slightly disappointing time-wise. But if they're right, then Apple and Palm are collaborating on an Apple-branded organizer, and in fact prototypes of the fruit-flavored units have been spotted around the Apple campus. (Anonymous sources claim that these aren't just regular Palm organizers with third-party replacement shells.) Sadly, the whole project is being put on "temporary hold" so that Apple could divert engineering resources to fix the various and sundry problems that cropped up in the P1. Because of this, if the Apple-branded Palm ever ships at all, it probably won't happen until sometime next year.

So, disappointed as we are that the Newton's successor is being delayed, we admit that getting the P1 out the door is by far the higher priority. The increased market share, revenue growth, and stock price boost resulting from a P1 success would all put Apple on much firmer footing to create a handheld that people would actually want to buy. Note to Apple: real handwriting recognition-- please, please, please.