TV-PGSeptember 21, 1999: So just why did Apple put so much emphasis on the G4 shortage? It wouldn't have anything to do with stock price manipulation, would it? Meanwhile, "Redmond Justice" heads back on the air with a clip show, and the Taiwan quake means a lot more than iBook delays...
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Mountains, Molehills, Etc. (9/21/99)
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Apple announced an earnings warning due to a lack of G4 processors to use in its new professional desktop Macs, and suddenly the stars went out, the heavens fell, and the world imploded. Well, okay, maybe it wasn't that bad, but Apple's stock dropped ten points in a single day-- and while that still places its value at a level higher than it was just a few short weeks ago, a ten-point drop is never something to scoff at. Basically, Wall Street reacted to Apple's announcement of lower-than-expected profits the same way we'd react to an all-night, commercial-free "The Nanny" marathon: they ran screaming, figuratively speaking. "Sell" was the watchword of the day down on the trading floor, and once the day's carnage was over, just under thirty million shares had changed hands. That's a higher trading volume than Microsoft and Intel can boast.

So did the traders hideously overreact? Yeah, probably. After all, Apple's big problem is that too many people want to buy their product-- ooooo, that's awful. Plus, the Power Mac line (the only one affected by a G4 shortage) isn't even the reason Apple's shares were trading so high in the first place; what about the iMac? And the iBook, now shipping, with the first units having reached dealers already? It was Apple's rebound in the consumer market that made AAPL the darling of Wall Street, so why should a few backordered Power Macs cause such a selling frenzy? Especially since, according to the Mac Observer, none of the analysts downgraded the stock, and in fact more than one of them reiterated their "buy" rating, calling the price drop a "buying opportunity."

Seasoned AtAT viewers already know what we're getting at. Apple seems to have played up a relatively minor problem, when they must have known full well that Wall Street would overreact in its time-honored way. As faithful viewer Edward points out, there was that announcement of an Apple stock buy-back last July. Suppose they're only just now getting around to purchasing that half-billion dollars' worth of AAPL? It sure would be nice if the price were, say, ten bucks cheaper per share, right? Especially since once the iBook hits the shelves, the new iMac makes its debut, and Motorola gets its G4-producing butt in gear, that stock price is sure to rebound in a major way. Or maybe they were just trying to head off a stock split by keeping the price down, as others have surmised. Oh, sure, there's that whole little issue of stock price manipulation being illegal and all that (you can read a Mac OS Rumors report on the subject if you so desire), but hey, what's a little fraud between friends? Wild speculation is always much more entertaining than reasoned, well-thought-out explanations. Just ask Wall Street.

 
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More Courtroom Fun (9/21/99)
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It was a return to the good old days as "Redmond Justice" headed back into the courtroom for closing arguments. In fact, it was sort of a "clip show," highlighting all those precious moments from past episodes near and dear to our hearts... Sadly, this was the final episode of the long-running drama to take place in front of a live studio audience-- at least, it represents the end of courtroom arguments in a case that's been entertaining viewers since the antitrust suit was filed last year. Faithful viewer Jerry O'Neil (who gets credited on AtAT so often we're going to have to add him to the permanent cast list one of these days) pointed out some of the best coverage over at CNNfn.

When we say it was a "clip show," we mean it. As both sides rehashed their respective cases, they revisited lots of familiar ground while taking "below-the-belt pot shots" to keep the audience entertained. First up: the government, represented by Smilin' David Boies and the phlegmatic Stephen Houck. Surprisingly, Boies played it mellow, magnanimously letting Houck grab the easy points with quotes like "no matter how much Microsoft complains that it is not a monopoly, everyone knows it is a monopoly" and "I won't comment on Mr. Gates's credibility, but everyone has seen enough to make their own decisions." Microsoft's John Warden had his own share of quotable notables, such as "the notion that Microsoft's actions have hurt consumers is an inversion of the truth [that] turns the world on its head" and "it's not the government who decides who is better or smarter - that is done by consumers." And everybody always enjoys the return of the "there's no monopoly" argument: Warden pointed out over one million people in Sun's developer community. Which is, of course, completely relevant, since the average computer buyer runs right out to Best Buy to pick up a $5000 Sun workstation running Solaris. (Yeah, yeah, Java, we know. Please.)

Anyway, now that the courtroom antics got one last hurrah, here's the schedule. First, Judge Jackson will present his own findings of fact probably late next month. Depending on how those are worded, Microsoft and the government may sit back down to try to hammer out a settlement. (Ha!) Then, later in the year, both sides in the case will deliver "conclusions of law," and then the judge is expected to issue his decision sometime early in 2000. So there's still plenty of fun ahead for fans of the show.

 
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The Best-Laid Plans (9/21/99)
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Technology's cool and all, but every once in a while Mother Nature steps in to remind us who rules the roost. The massive earthquake that hit Taiwan carries a heavy human toll: over 1700 confirmed dead so far, more than 4000 injured, over 100,000 homeless, and several thousand people still believed trapped in the rubble. Significant aftershocks are hindering rescue efforts, and a CNN article reports that rescue teams are finding "more bodies than survivors." (The AtAT staff has family in Taiwan, and we haven't heard any news yet, so please keep your fingers crossed for us.) (Update: We've since managed to establish contact with our family and verify that everyone's all right. Thanks to all who expressed concern.)

Given the level of human misery the quake has brought, it seems crass to consider its effects on Apple and other high-tech companies who rely on Taiwanese-made components, but it is a business that touches our everyday lives, and should be examined. CNET has an overall look at what the disruption means for the industry; most plants suffered no more than power outages, but they can only run for a few days on their fuel-powered generators. Taiwan appears to remain in the grip of a nation-wide power outage, which could introduce delays in production ranging from "a few days" to "a week to a month." A large portion of chips in the middle of the manufacturing process will have to be written off, and machines will have to be checked for damage, recalibrated, etc. It's still a bit too early to tell just what the long-term effects are likely to be, but right now it doesn't look good.

As for Apple, you probably know that the iBook is manufactured by a Taiwan firm called Alpha Top. The first batch of iBooks recently shipped to customers and dealers, but those units won't come close to fulfilling the 160,000 pre-orders taken for the product. The Powerbook Zone notes that apparently there was no severe damage to Alpha Top's manufacturing plant, but of course the sustained power outage-- not to mention the country coming to terms with a national tragedy-- is sure to affect the production of more iBooks. At this point, though, our concern rests primarily with the people of Taiwan, and our thoughts are with them as they pull through this ordeal.

 
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