Prepare for flip-flop! While we openly admitted our somewhat underwhelming initial experience with QuickTime 4's new live streaming capabilities (sound kept cutting out and video was unrecognizable via our measly 28.8 connection), we've got to say, things are already looking up. After letting our disappointment stew for a day or so, we stumbled upon a Mac Observer article about an Internet-based radio station that has already started to webcast via QT4-- even though the software's still in beta. Thinking that we'd probably have lots better luck with an audio-only stream, we clicked on over to Eclectic Radio's GoGaGa page to see what was up. And our experience was definitely a positive one.

When we clicked the "Tune In" graphic, at first we thought nothing was happening. After a few seconds, though, the sounds of a jazz quartet started flowing out of our speakers, in stereo, even though nothing on the web page had changed. That's when we noticed that the link had sent the URL for the audio stream directly to QuickTime Player, which was happily playing the music in the background. After choosing "Add Favorite" from the Favorites menu, we can now tune in to GoGaGa directly from QuickTime Player, without even running a browser. (By the way, if you give it a try, when they say "eclectic," they mean eclectic. We heard some Dixieland, followed by a polka, followed by something that sounded like some guy blowing across the top of a Coke bottle.)

Flush with success, we decided to give live video another shot, even though deep down we would never expect our slow connection to provide any reasonable results. In QuickTime Player we entered the URL to Apple's live BBC World webcast and crossed our fingers. Lo and behold, video from the heavens! Sound that we could hear and understand. Video that actually represented what it was supposed to be showing, complete with facial details and (occasionally) honest-to-goodness legible text (look, it's Mike Woolridge, live from Delhi!). In fact, doubling the video size made it look pretty darn good, thanks to our Rage Pro's built-in QuickTime smoothing. The Player reported a bitrate hanging out around 24 kbps, and a frame rate of between four and five frames per second. Frankly, we're amazed at how good this looks and sounds; apparently our initial woes were caused by server overload or something, because what we're seeing now is a lot more compelling than anything we've tried to watch via RealVideo-- and it doesn't litter the desktop with all those annoying .ra and .ram files. Apple may really be on to something here.

Speaking of RealNetworks, does QuickTime 4 have them quaking in their boots? We certainly assume so, though they claim otherwise. Not only are users reporting better results with Apple's live streaming implementation than with RealVideo (especially at higher connection speeds), QuickTime 4 means live video can be included in any application that supports QuickTime-- no more reliance on betas of RealPlayer that frequently lack features in the Mac version. And to add to RealNetworks' headache, Apple's released its QuickTime Streaming Server as an open source project, now known as the "Darwin Streaming Server." Stalwart developers can download the source code for free and tweak it to their hearts' content, whereas RealNetworks' server software is closed-- and it costs. Quite a lot, so we're told.

However, according to a CNET article, RealNetworks claims to be "unimpressed" with Apple's open source initiative. Steve Zaballos, their director of systems marketing, says that he's having "a hard time seeing what Apple announced as open source" and that "it's not free." Apple countered by stating that they're "giving away an entire QuickTime streaming server" that people can use "in an IBM server or a Linux box" for any purpose. While we don't really feel like reading through the entire Apple Public Source License (newly-updated to address concerns raised by some members of the Open Source community) just to get at the gory details, we figure we'll live dangerously here and take Apple's word for it.

So the big question is, will Apple's open source streaming server win any ground over RealNetworks? Apple's banking on it, likening the cost of the Real server to a "RealNetworks tax" that people are tired of paying. Without developer interest, though, the Darwin stuff could easily go the way of Netscape's Mozilla project, which has been widely considered a big open source failure. Interestingly enough, when last we checked, RealNetworks' stock was way up, and Apple's continues to edge downward-- though whether Wall Street knows what's on developers' minds remains to be seen. Personally, we think QuickTime 4 is going to be big. Real big. And eventually, bigger than Real. Of course, we're eternal optimists who should probably be medicated, but that doesn't mean we're not occasionally right.

We'd like to note, briefly, a strange reversal of fortune. A couple of weeks ago, PC giant Compaq issued a warning of "lower-than-expected" profits, which apparently sent lots of tech stocks into a tailspin, following the standard "Whither Compaq goest..." model. That was just the latest in a pretty long line of disappointments for the company, and last Sunday it all came to a head-- or, a couple of heads. Rolling, that is. According to a ZDNN story, Compaq's CEO, Eckhard Pfeiffer, "resigned" (in much the same manner than Gil Amelio "resigned," we take it), and CFO Earl Mason also left to go work for another company. Chairman of the board Ben Rosen stated that "The computer world is in a lot of turmoil... and we felt we really needed a change in the leadership in order to keep our position as the industry leader."

Now, here's the part that really made us sit up and take notice: about a week ago, CBS Marketwatch posted an article that openly posed the question, "Is Compaq the next Apple?" (We assume they mean that in a bad way.) What an interesting development; such a short time ago, nobody seemed to question Compaq's status as ruler of the roost. After all, this is a company who actually managed to buy Digital Equipment Corporation, which wasn't exactly a transaction effected with pocket change. And now people are wondering if Compaq might be entering the same kind of death spiral in which Apple found itself before drastic changes helped things get happy again-- or happier, at any rate.

All this isn't to say that Compaq's losing a billion dollars a year, or anything-- all this brouhaha is because their profits weren't as high as expected, but they're still pretty darn high. But we take this whole situation to be a prime illustration of just how quickly things can change in the tech industry. With that kind of mutability, who's to say where Apple can be in three years if they keep making the right moves? Apple doesn't have to be a niche player-- we'll leave it at that.