| | July 13, 2000: Uh-oh-- one analyst thinks Apple might not meet its Q3 expectations this Tuesday. Meanwhile, Mac fans consider the possibility of a new yellow iMac flavor, and the FBI may be reading your email, so keep your tone polite and respectful... | | |
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The End Of The Streak? (7/13/00)
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Is this it? Will this finally be the quarter that Apple's posted financial results will actually be lower than analysts' expectations? Apple's consistently "beat the Street" for so many quarters in a row now we've honestly lost count-- it's thirteen or fourteen or some other ridiculously impressive number, and after guessing low so many times in a row, you'd think the analysts would start edging their bets a bit higher. But maybe they did, and they went too high, because MacNN tipped us off to a quick blurb over at CBS MarketWatch which reports that analyst Kurtis King of Banc of America now expects Apple to "come up a bit light" when it posts its Q3 numbers this coming Tuesday. Oh Mighty Fred Anderson, say it ain't so!
We're not quite sure where we stand on this opinion. On the one hand, there are plenty of hints that Apple will meet or beat expectations yet again. For one thing, the last time Apple saw that it wouldn't meet its numbers, it issued a press release saying so, blaming G4 shortages for the shortfall. That was, of course, a masterstroke, since all the analysts immediately lowered their predictions, and when Apple reported its profit, it once again topped the estimates-- the new estimates, not the old ones... but it still counts! Since no such press release has been issued for Q3, we take that as a sign that Apple's pleased with its finances for the quarter. There's also the fact that the announcement of the results was moved back a day from Wednesday the 19th, so as not to conflict with the day of the Stevenote; given how much great, stock-boosting news is likely to come out of that little lovefest, we assume Apple would try to bury any less-than-terrific Q3 results by announcing them on the same day after the markets closed.
On the other hand, it's also possible that Apple chose to schedule its financial disclosure the day before the keynote precisely because it's got lower-than-expected numbers to reveal. If the bad news comes out after 5PM on Tuesday, and all the good news comes rolling in the very next morning, well, maybe the bad news would get lost in the keynote momentum when the markets open. It's a tough call. Given how unreliable those analysts have proven themselves to be time and time again, we don't want to put too much stock in King's report, but seeing as we're smack in the middle of our quarterly Beat The Analysts contest, we figured we had to tell you about it in the interest of full disclosure. If you haven't registered your guess yet, do your research (or just pluck a nine-or-so-digit number out of thin air) and go enter!
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Call It Mellow Yellow (7/13/00)
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There's less than a week to go before Mr. Steve's Wild Ride, and pretty much everyone's settled into a comfortable selection of keynote predictions. A new iMac tops most people's lists, given that some of the current models have been discontinued, the channel's been bled bone-dry, and the product was last updated sometime around the Taft administration. A new keyboard and mouse to replace the current "cute" devices rank pretty high on the ol' Probab-o-meter, too-- though speculation as to just what the new mouse will look like varies pretty wildly. The arrival and distribution of the Mac OS X beta CD-ROMs seems to be on a lot of people's minds, and we can just imagine Uncle Steve sailing them into the crowd like frisbees. (Hopefully the event won't be marred by the necessity of calling for paramedics; it's all fun and games until someone loses an eye.) All of these possibilities have pretty much been discussed to death.
There are some less likely prospects, of course, such as multiprocessor G4 systems, an iBook DV, and the ever-elusive Apple PDA-- but those, too, have been debated and picked over so many times, they're virtually old news now without ever even having been announced. No, we're itching for something fresh to talk about... and so it's Mac OS Rumors to the rescue, with its report that Apple's planning to expand the iMac color line. Specifically, one reader over there asks whether he may soon be able to purchase a yellow "Pineapple" iMac, and the response, predictably, pretty much boils down to "maybe, maybe not." Still, MOSR claims that Apple's going to add some new flavors to the lineup, though what those flavors might be remains shrouded in mystery and secrecy and all that good stuff.
Now, we've heard things like this before, in case you've forgotten; in fact, last year there were miscellaneous reports from "trusted sources" that Apple was not only going to add new hues to the Amazing iMac Color Wheel, but that it would also be introducing a choice of textures, patterns, and different materials. (It all turned out to be hokum.) But even if the reports turn out to be true this time around, we have to say, we're not terribly confident that Apple would release a yellow iMac. First of all, if anyone's decor is disturbing enough that a bright yellow computer would fit in nicely, he or she probably has little enough taste not to want an iMac in the first place. Secondly, pineapples aren't yellow on the outside, and since we doubt that Apple would ship a brown-and-green spiky iMac, a different fruit would probably be chosen. That leaves "Lemon" and "Banana." The latter might work, but the former makes criticism by harsh reviewers far too easy; why give 'em a head start? Even "Banana" is asking for trouble: "Banana? With its lack of a floppy drive and its paltry 450 MHz processor, they should have called it a 'Lemon'!" You get the picture. And lastly, a translucent yellow design is likely to be a little bit too reminiscent of... er... How can we put this delicately? "Liquid excretory material." And no one wants that sitting on the desk.
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We're On Candid Carnivore (7/13/00)
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So how 'bout that wacky Carnivore system, huh? While it's not strictly an Apple-related subject, since it potentially affects everyone who ever uses email, we still consider it highly relevant. (And even if it weren't relevant, that's never stopped us from talking about something before-- remember last year's Fridge Saga?) Anyway, Carnivore is the FBI's "superfast system" that can intercept, search, and log "millions of e-mails a second," according the Wall Street Journal. Reportedly, when the FBI is granted a federal wiretap order, they can wander into an ISP, hook up the Carnivore, and have instant access to every message that travels across that ISP's systems. So if you're, you know, conducting your illegal drug-trafficking and child porn business over email, we'd strongly advise you to stop-- for reasons too numerous to list.
Now, what has privacy advocates up in arms over Carnivore is that it's remarkably broad in the scope of the messages it processes. Whereas tapping a suspected criminal's phone only lets the bureau listen in on calls placed to and by that individual, using Carnivore gives the feds access to every email message sent or received by everyone using that ISP. If a suspected counterfeiter uses EarthLink and the FBI hooks up Carnivore to get evidence against him, the government also has access to all of your mail, assuming you just happen to be an EarthLink subscriber as well. Betcha didn't suspect that your choice of ISP could put you in the same surveillance boat with counterfeiters and organized crime lords, huh?
Since word of Carnivore's existence broke a few months back, the ACLU has issued an open letter to Representatives Canady and Watt of the House Judiciary Committee to protest the system's overly-broad scope. The gist of the argument is very reasonable: when the FBI is granted the right to eavesdrop on the communications of a particular target, it should not be allowed to intercept the messages of thousands of bystanders and then simply trusted to ignore everything but the target's mail. In particular, we dug this line: "This 'trust us, we're the Government' approach is the antithesis of the procedures required under our the [sic] wiretapping laws." Hmmm... Suppose the folks in the Microsoft marketing department are upset that the U.S. government grabbed that slogan before they could?
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