 |  | April 12, 1998: A team of analysts expects that Apple will post a profit of about $21 million. Meanwhile, Mac-eliminator Dan Updegrove's soft white underbelly is exposed, and Apple considers cutting the LaserWriter loose... |  |  |
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The Number To Beat (4/12/98)
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The official estimate from the analysts is in, only days before the final results are posted; the consensus among twenty-two analysts polled by the research firm First Call Corp. is that Apple will post a profit of $21.23 million for its second quarter. While that's not a terrific profit for a multi-billion-dollar company, it's still a nice vote of confidence in a company that's bled about two billion dollars over the past few years, especially given Apple's historical weakness in the second quarter. Details can be found over at MacWEEK.
For a sense of perspective, in the same quarter a year ago Apple posted a loss of over $700 million. In addition, apparently only one of the twenty-two analysts actually predicted a loss, and most analysts are expecting Apple to remain profitable through the next couple of years. If this isn't a sign that Apple's getting its house in order, we'll eat our collective hats. Of course, we're not sure just how seriously we can take the article's numbers, given that they listed Apple's Q1 profits to be $25 million, when we all know that it was $47 million. (D'oh!! Someone slap the factchecker!)
Keep in mind that last quarter, Apple beat the analysts' predictions by a considerable margin; that $47 million profit came after the consensus was for a small loss. Can Apple surprise us again? What do you think? If you haven't already, make sure you register your own prediction in our "Beat the Analysts" contest. If you're the closest guesser, fame, fortune, and fabulous prizes can be yours...
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The Dirt on Updegrove (4/12/98)
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"Updegrove... Updegrove... Now where have we heard that name before?" Okay, true, it's been a few months since this was big news in the Mac world, but Dan Updegrove is the director of Information Technology Services at Yale who sent that infamous letter to the incoming freshpersons, informing them that Yale would not support Macs beyond the year 2000, and that all students should therefore buy Wintel PCs instead. That move kicked up a lot of dust, especially when it came to light that the letter coincided with a multimillion-dollar Intel grant that Updegrove had applied for, and won.
The reason we're rehashing this old plot is because a new twist has been written into the script. The Yale Rumpus has a detailed article on Updegrove, revealing a control-freak personality run amuck. It includes comments from several ex-employees of Updegrove's, both from his current Yale years and from when he was associate vice provost of computing at Penn. The comments are, for the most part, far from complimentary. And while that's lovely soap opera fodder and well worth reading, the really interesting thing is that Updegrove himself confirms that he is "a big Mac user." In addition, ex-colleagues reveal that Updegrove actively defended the Macs at Penn-- back when Apple had the cash to give large grants, too. Sort of makes the timing of that Intel grant seem even more unfortunate, hmmm? Oh, what people will do for free stuff...
Then again, who are we to judge? If Intel handed us $3 million and told us to transform "As the Apple Turns" into "Andy Grove's Daily Affirmation," we'd have to think seriously about our future direction. Actually, no, we wouldn't; you'd be reading Uncle Andy's daily platitudes, and we'd be buying a lot of very nice and very expensive Mac equipment on which to produce them. Sorry, kiddies, but them's the breaks; we'd be very happy living off just the bank interest on $3 mil for the rest of our Mac-using lives. Of course, if Apple made a counter-offer of only, say, $2 million, we'd probably go with Apple. Call us crazy idealistic fools...
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Buh-Bye, LaserWriter... (4/12/98)
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The cuts go on, as Apple continues to hack away every chunk of itself not focused tightly on its slim, trim business plan (whatever that may be). The next appendage to get the axe may be the LaserWriter division, if Mac the Knife's absinthe-soaked ramblings can be trusted.
Okay, yes, selling off the printer line makes sense. Apple's not a printer company. They can't be making much money on the things. Mac users have plenty of alternatives to the LaserWriter, so it doesn't hurt us much to see them go. What bothers us about the potential sale is that it was the LaserWriter that essentially put Apple into the desktop publishing driver's seat. Selling it off seems almost like a symbolic surrender, a tacit admission that Apple's going to cease innovating in new, groundbreaking areas with the potential to change the world...
...Not! As if! Geez, it's just a line of printers, for crying out loud. Get a grip. As far as we're concerned, Apple should get as lean and mean as it possibly can, in order to kick royal OS butt with Rhapsody and Sonata. Once they've got the top priorities taken care of, they can start breaking ground in new, uncharted areas again. We're not worried. Much.
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