Attention investors: beware falling prices! Apple's atomic stock price explosion couldn't last forever, and we've just gotten the first potential sign that the party might be over: an actual, honest-to-goodness analyst downgrade. That's right, folks, one of the suits on Wall Street is officially recommending that his clients not buy any more AAPL-- and shares subsequently dipped by a tough-to-ignore $2.58 in regular trading. Is this the beginning of the end?

Well, maybe, but to us it looks more like the end of the beginning. As far as downgrades go, Apple picked up just about the best one it could possibly dream of; according to CBS MarketWatch, Smith Barney's Richard Gardner "raised his 2005 and 2006 earnings estimates" for Apple by about an extra $68 million in sheer profit per year "due to the outlook for iPod and iMac sales," which he apparently expects to be rosy for the next two years at least. In addition, he bumped his price target on AAPL from the oh-so-passé $60 a share to a slightly less out-of-date $75. In other words, Gardner thinks Apple will be making more and more money for at least the next two years on strong demand for hot products, and expects the stock price to go up another ten bucks within a year. So heaven forbid that any of his clients actually buy any or anything.

Yes, despite all the happy talk about increased earnings, two years of growth, and a stock price that he still thinks will rise, Gardner has cut his rating on AAPL from "Buy" to "Hold," which constitutes the first analyst downgrade on the stock since September (and that one had been the first since January-- of last year). Which is odd on the face of it, since, generally speaking, when an analyst thinks a stock is going to go up, you'd probably expect him to tell you to buy it. So what gives?

Well, apparently it's like this: since AAPL's price has "doubled in value over the last four months," Gardner figures it's grown a little faster than reality might otherwise warrant. So while Apple the company is, in fact, doing extremely well and will probably earn a share price in the $75 area within the next twelve months, that's little enough of a boost that he "can no longer recommend that medium- to long-term investors place new money into the shares." So it'll make investors money, just not enough.

What's more, he thinks that AAPL is due for one of those "corrections" that'll knock a chunk of change off the price before it starts to climb upwards again. In other words, he says that shareholders might want to cash out before the price tumbles and then buy their shares back at bargain basement prices later. As TheStreet.com quotes him: "while we do not see negative catalysts between now and year-end, our valuation work suggests that clients should use strength between now and January to take profits." Well, gee, here's a negative catalyst for ya, Richard: how about an analyst downgrade that triggers a $2.58 drop in the share price? Didja see that one coming? Huh? Didja?

For what it's worth, Gardner's not the only one saying that AAPL's recent Run o' Glory is winding to a close; CNN/Money is also suggesting that investors "cash in on gains" despite Apple's "great prospects," noting that "several institutional investors are starting to sell even though they still think Apple's fundamentals are strong." The good news, of course, is that no one's expecting another full-on power-dive that Apple will need four years from which to recover-- at least, not unless we see a lot more downgrades in the days to come, and that would never happen. Right? Right?

Now that the iTunes Music Store has finally made it to Canada and Apple can go back to being preoccupied with selling a few gazillion more iPods, things are a little quiet again, so how about we drop back and punt with the Agatha Christie-style drama of Ten Little PC Vendors? Early in the week, faithful viewer mrmgraphics dished us an intriguing little thought experiment in the form of a death warrant; according to an InternetNews article, a recent Gartner report predicts that, 36 months from now, three of the current top ten personal computer manufacturers will be pushing up the daisies-- at least in a PC-vending sense. While said companies might not necessarily go out of business, Gartner forecasts that "reduced profits and growth" will force the unlucky Triad of PC Pain to exit the personal computer market altogether.

So assuming that Gartner's right, who's tottering on the edge of the PC-making grave? Well, in no particular order, apparently the top ten PC vendors (three of whom are apparently marked for death) are Dell, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, Gateway, Toshiba, Acer, Fujitsu, NEC, Legend... and Apple. (Dunt dunt dunt dunnnnnnnn!)

Not that anyone thinks that Apple is actually about to go under (at least, not these days), but as you all know, there are plenty of conspiracy theorists who serve as the Mac-universe equivalents of those guys with wide eyes and scary beards who march up and down city streets carrying poorly-lettered "THE END IS NIGH" signs. Given the Mac's continuing decline in market share and Apple's increasing focus on (and revenue from) the iPod and related music technologies, they've got a point: it's not completely inconceivable that the company is reinventing itself as a consumer electronics company that will eventually divest itself of its entire line of personal computers-- or, to put it more succinctly so it'll fit on a paranoiac's poorly-lettered sign, "THE iPOD IS KILLING THE MAC."

But assuming it'd ever happen at all, could it really happen in just three years' time? Personally we're not buying the theory that Apple's got a long-term plan underway to phase out the Mac, but like Gartner says, "exiting the market may be the only logical choice for global vendors bleeding profits and struggling for share"; if, three years from now, the Mac has become a financial liability for Apple and it can thrive on its burgeoning "Digital Lifestyle" business alone (we know, we know... but a lot can happen in three years), who's to say that Apple wouldn't cut its Mac business loose?

Of course, just because we think such a development is marginally within the realm of possibility doesn't mean we think that Apple's one of the three Dead Vendors Walkin' that'll bail come late 2007. Obviously Dell isn't going anywhere, but consider some of the others; Gartner thinks that HP and IBM might both be ripe to spin off their PC businesses soon "if a squeeze on margins and profitability are deemed too great by their parent companies"-- and indeed, reports of IBM putting its PC business up for sale are circulating even now. Feckless Gateway's always a favorite candidate for the Big Dirt Nap, eMachines merger notwithstanding. We've heard that Toshiba's been hurting for a while, now. And we know we're talking about the global market, here, and we're blessed not to have to mess with Wintel PCs much in even a local capacity, but we'd never heard of Legend; sure, a quick Googling reveals that Legend (now Lenovo) is huge in Asia-- but c'mon, how big a market can that be?

So for now, at least, we're betting that Apple will be one of the seven survivors that makes it out of the woods sobbing and clutching a bloody machete to its tattered blouse. (Whoops-- sorry, wrong genre.) But don't sleep too soundly, because hey, anything can happen, right?

Well, apparently the iTunes Affiliate Program has been deemed a rousing success-- and maybe the .Mac referral discount scheme not so much-- because now Apple is enlisting web site owners to help them rack up .Mac subscribers, too. The newly-launched .Mac Affiliate Program works a lot like its iTunes sibling: once accepted into the program, webmasters can add .Mac links to their content which will credit them with a bounty for every new .Mac subscriber they can bring in. The stakes are higher, though; whereas the purchase of a song at the iTMS earn an affiliate a shiny nickel, every new .Mac subscription yields a whopping fifteen clams. Ka-ching!

Needless to say, being the money-grubbing sellouts we are, we immediately applied for the program-- and were surprised to receive word of our acceptance about five minutes later. What, no background check and five-day waiting period? Not that we're complaining, mind you, because now we can start hassling you poor rubes to "Learn more about all the things you can do with .Mac" in hopes that you'll fork over your $99.95 per year and we can wait three months to get paid and then go grab a Garden Fresh Big Papa (hold the cheese) on your dime. We know that many of you are .Mac subscribers already, but we figure maybe you'll pay for a second full subscription under an assumed name. You know, just out of the goodness of your hearts.

So now, thanks to this new affiliate program and the apparent continuation of that older referral spiel, our slavishly devoted fans can choose exactly how they want to reward us, .Mac-wise: if you sign up via this link, we'll get fifteen smackeroos in semi-convenient check form come March. But if you use this link instead, we'll get a twenty-dollar discount when our own account is due for renewal in October. Credit or cash; oh, the many ways in which you can shower us with riches! Unparalleled choice in how you can spend your money so as to benefit us indirectly-- that's our commitment to you, the viewer. (What, you thought it would be something about quality of content? Please.)

Meanwhile, the eternal mystery continues (as, um, eternal mysteries generally do): why does Apple think we're good enough to pimp iTMS songs and .Mac subscriptions, but not Apple Store merchandise? Regular viewers will recall that our application to the Apple Store Associates Program was unceremoniously denied a few months back, which deprives you all of the privilege of fattening our wallets by purchasing build-to-order Macs and laser-engraved iPods. Well, they did invite us to "reapply at a later date," so maybe we'll give that a shot-- it's the least we can do for you. Say, maybe this time we should apply using our nickname: "MacCentral."

What? Our moms have called us that since we were kids. Honest!