TV-PGJuly 15, 2003: Any hope of new Apple products this week seems to have been crushed by a serious lack of security measures at Apple's Macworld CreativePro booth. Meanwhile, money dude Fred Anderson prepares for his quarterly results conference call tomorrow, and Bloomberg claims that Apple may sell movies online-- but its source wasn't particularly emphatic on the point...
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A Hail Mary Gregnote Wish (7/15/03)
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Okay, we admit it; irrepressible optimists that we are, we were actually still clinging to the thinnest sliver of hope that this week's Macworld CreativePro conference might not be just a mere desiccated shell of Expos past. In particular, we were harboring this fantasy wherein tomorrow's Feature Presentation would be hijacked at the last second by Steve Jobs himself (hey, he wrested a keynote back from Phil Schiller in 1998, remember?), who would then proceed to announce immediate Power Mac G5 availability, new 15-inch PowerBooks, drastically cheaper aluminum-framed displays, a $299 entry-level G4 Cube that can be connected to any ol' monitor on the planet, immediate availability of Panther (including a $129 copy for Intel iron), a new Newton-based smartphone, a merger with Disney, a tactical nuclear strike on Dell's headquarters, and the imminent subjugation of the entire human race to his superior alien intellect and technology. (We originally had a thing in there about a market share increase, too, but we thought we should keep it at least slightly realistic.)

Now, though, we're just not holding our breath. At previous Expos, Apple's booth has typically been put together under an impenetrable veil of secrecy: big black curtains; armed guards; snipers in the rafters; teamsters being fed to large, starving tigers to guarantee their silence-- basically, a security plan so hearty it's the soup you can eat with a fork. But not this year, Gladys; Think Secret reports that Apple's booth, which isn't even officially open to floor traffic until tomorrow, is already "wide open." Nothing is hidden because, presumably, there's nothing to hide, and Greg Joswiak's semi-keynote will proceed as planned-- with nothing new to show us whatsoever.

Then again, while it seems pretty darn unlikely that Greg will introduce any hot new products when he tries to fill Steve's really big shoes tomorrow, let's look at the bright side: he ought to have access to at least some interesting stuff that wasn't around for Steve's WWDC keynote. For example, we wouldn't be surprised if he presented some G5 preorder numbers, iSight sales figures, and maybe even a G5 TV ad or two ready to hit the airwaves. (Indeed, some people claim one has already surfaced-- thanks to faithful viewer Sledgehammer Smythe for the heads up.) Which is all good stuff. So as long as you keep your expectations at a reasonable level given the uncharacteristically light security at Apple's booth, we're sure Greg's presentation will entertain and enlighten.

Unless, of course, that's just what they want you to think. Maybe the utter lack of secrecy is all part of the surprise, and Apple plans to have black-clad soldier-types rappelling down from the ceiling to stock the booth with all the newly-announced goodies as soon as they get the go-ahead over their headsets from the Apple operatives watching the keynote unfold. In fact, now we find ourselves wondering if the entire presentation will plod along as announced in a pleasantly bland fashion... until Greg says "one more thing" and rips off his mask, revealing Steve in all his glory-- who then announces all that stuff we mentioned above and proclaims that everyone in attendance will be receiving a free Porsche filled with diamonds and supermodels. Why, it's just too perfect not to happen!

 
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Black Ink Good, Red Ink Bad (7/15/03)
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Regardless of what does or does not happen onstage during Greg Joswiak's "feature presentation" at the show tomorrow, at least we're guaranteed one press release from Apple: tomorrow is Quarterly Results day, and all eyes are on Money Czar Fred Anderson as he gears up for the big conference call, wherein he gets to reveal just how well (or how poorly) Apple did last quarter, after which he'll answer forty-five minutes' worth of questions from analysts with his patented "I can't talk about unannounced products" spiel. Good times will be had by all, and you can listen in even if you aren't some high-falutin' Wall Street bigwig with a $3000 suit and a head full of tepid oatmeal; all you need is and Internet connection and QuickTime.

For what it's worth, them thar analysts are apparently expecting good ol' Fred to pull three cents per share out of his sleeve for the quarter. And while three cents isn't tough to hide up a sleeve, three cents per share comes out to nearly $11 million, so here's hoping that Fred has either some really large bills or some really big sleeves. And if you're thinking that, regardless of how tough it might be to stuff up one's arm-coverings, $11 million really isn't that much for a multibillion-dollar corporation to be scraping together in three months' time, well, we agree. But hey, times are tough, and what with Power Mac sales probably hovering in the single digits for the past few months while visions of G5s danced in our heads, eleven mil doesn't sound all that bad to us. It is, after all, just slightly more than we made last quarter.

And let's look at the bright side: Apple's making money, not losing it. Probably. We won't know for sure until tomorrow, of course, but considering that not a single analyst thinks Apple's in the red and Apple never issued one of those scary earnings warnings, we think it's a pretty safe bet to take. Now, we've got a computer company that, in an atmosphere in which computer sales are apparently pretty much globally in the toilet, keeps on releasing innovative new products at a furious pace and opening new retail stores. For that company to show any kind of profit given the circumstances sounds like a pretty nifty feat to us. So as long as Fred announces a number written in black ink instead of red, we'll be cheering.

Of course, if it does turn out to be a loss, prepare for the heavens themselves to tremble. Yea verily.

Meanwhile, why not participate in the running gag known as our quarterly Beat The Analysts contest? Heck, we'll tell you why not: even before our lives got turned upside down fourteen and a half months ago, we frequently took a month or more to report each quarter's outcome; since then, we haven't reported the results of any BTA contest at all; and last quarter we were completely MIA, so the contest didn't even happen in the first place. And yet we're running it again, as a sort of tribute to unflagging optimism in the face of insurmountable odds. Besides, it costs you nothing to slap down a guess, so what do you have to lose?

 
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Padding A Slow News Day (7/15/03)
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Allow us to illustrate how ideally the spread of news works these days. We spot a little note over at Bloomberg.com. It mentions that Apple might leverage the success its had with the iTunes Music Store and tweak the technology slightly to "sell movies online." It gives, as a source, somebody or something called "Berliner Zeitung." Now, Berliner Zeitung could a German newspaper, or possibly the guy at the deli who slices the knockwurst. Doesn't matter. Because, you see, Berliner Zeitung reportedly cites Pascal Cagni, who just happens to be Apple Europe's top dog. So we've got Bloomberg citing Berliner Zeitung citing Pascal Cagni, and saying Apple "may sell movies online." That's the setup. Got it? Okay, now, all that opens the door for us to do this:

APPLE'S GOING TO SELL MOVIES ONLINE!! APPLE'S GOING TO SELL MOVIES ONLINE!! HOLY FREAKIN' CATS, APPLE'S GOING TO SELL MOVIES! ONLINE!! FOR, LIKE, THIRTY CENTS PER FEATURE! FORTY, IF JENNIFER LOPEZ IS IN IT, BUT STILL-- APPLE'S GOING TO SELL MOVIES ONLINE!!!

Cool, huh? Except, of course, we've got "responsible" journalists wrecking our fun by trying to discredit Bloomberg's report. Macworld UK calls Bloomberg's blurb "sexed-up" (must have been that line about Cagni's "heaving bosom" and "breathless sighs of yearning desire"), noting that while Cagni did speak to German magazine Berliner Zeitung (ah, so it's a magazine, is it?), his comments were far less provocative than Bloomberg may have implied. Here's how it went. Berliner Zeitung asked Cagni, "do you believe that Apple will one day offer movies in the same way that it offers music downloads via its iTunes Music Store?" Cagni replied that Apple can't comment on future products or services, but admitted that "it is, however, surely a good idea."

That's it. Nothing more on the subject.

Now, that's not to say that Bloomberg did anything necessarily wrong, here; after all, Apple may in fact one day sell movies online. But one Apple rep saying that it's a "good idea" doesn't really push the probabilities much one way or the other, so unless Bloomberg also starts offering headlines like "Apple may breed carnivorous mutant hamsters and unleash them upon an unsuspecting world," well, yeah, maybe Bloomberg was a teensy bit more provocative than the original source material warranted.

By the way, we weren't kidding about that hamster thing. Buy lots of cedar chips. You're going to need them.

 
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