| | September 29, 2000: Bam! And then it was mucilage. Apple's stock sheds half its value overnight following a nasty earnings warning. Meanwhile, Apple still denies any knowledge of a systemic "cracked Cube" problem, but some reports hint that the company is quietly replacing affected units provided the customer agrees to keep mum. And rumors of Apple opening its own retail stores reaches a new level of believability... | | |
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So Much For That Growth (9/29/00)
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Wuh-oh, sounds like the party might be over... but the drama is just beginning! Remember a few years ago, when you couldn't spit out the window without hitting three journalists calling Apple "beleaguered" and at least one calling it "doomed"? Ah, those were the good old days... Back then, AtAT wrote itself; we never had to scrounge for material, because each and every move Apple made was fraught with audience-pleasing peril. Ever since Apple entered its recent "Golden Age" we've been more hard-pressed for quality angst. Not that there haven't been some great moments of doubt, like this ongoing G4 clock speed drought and that nine-month stretch of no iMac revisions. Still, while those are fine grist for the mill, nothing beats a nice, juicy financial meltdown for quality tech-soap entertainment.
So while we'd much rather have a healthy Apple than a steamy plot twist any day of the week, our ambivalence rating shot through the roof upon reading the news that faithful viewer Jerry O'Neil passed along. According to CNNfn, Apple has issued an earnings warning setting the stage for fourth-quarter financial results that are "substantially below expectations." How far below? Well, CNNfn reports that the analysts' consensus had been for Apple to show a profit of 45 cents per share; instead, money dude Fred Anderson declares that the company will only pull in around 30 to 33 cents per share. That's roughly $110 million versus the previously-expected $165 million. Ouch!
Fred attributed the expected shortfall to a multitude of factors, including a "business slowdown in all geographies" (why are we picturing people in suits moving in slow motion?), slow Education sales in September, and-- perhaps most troubling of all-- G4 Cube sales that are off to a "slower than expected start." Evidently the world at large simply isn't ready to pay more for a computer with fewer features on the spec sheet but lots of unquantifiable niceties like sleekness, silence, and a compact footprint. Hey, what can we say? People lack vision. And $1799 of disposable income.
Meanwhile, just to add to the general Sturm und Drang, Apple's stock price looks like it drove off a cliff. It closed yesterday at about $53, and plummeted to under $30 in after-hours trading. The stock opened at a little over $28, and at broadcast time it had dropped still further to around $27.50. For those of you who have no ethical qualms about profiting off the panicked sell-offs of skittish day-traders (and why would you?), this may be your best chance in years to pick up a boatload of AAPL at such a low price. We're strongly considering it ourselves, but it'll take a little thought, since we generally like to keep our assets liquid in case we get a hankering for new toys. AAPL may be a great investment, but stock certificates aren't nearly as fun to look at as, say, a big-screen TV plugged into a Dreamcast or something.
Anyway, Apple's final quarterly results are scheduled to be released on October 18th after the markets close, so we won't know the full extent of the damage until then. Wait a minute... is the quarter even over yet? We should have until the end of the month to bump up those numbers, right? Everyone run out and buy a Cube on Saturday! If Apple maintains a 25% margin on those eight-inch supercomputers, then by our calculations, the company only needs to sell about 125,000 of them over the course of the next two days to meet its numbers. No problem!
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Gagging On Replacements (9/29/00)
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We figure that the last thing Apple needs while its stock price is dropping 50% overnight-- partially due to slow sales of the G4 Cube-- is for this issue about Cube cracks to continue dragging on. Unfortunately, no matter how badly Apple wants the subject closed, it refuses to go away. The deal, for those of you who are just getting up to speed, is that several people are reporting cracks in the clear shells of their Cubes. Now, according to Apple, these are just "mold lines" that are normal, unavoidable realities of the injection molding process, and don't represent any structural weakness in the polycarbonate.
Most of the people complaining to Apple about cracks in their Cubes are probably just seeing these normal mold lines and mistaking them for actual damage. (Given that customers are paying a premium for style and appearance, though, even that would seem to be a valid complaint.) Some people, however, say that their mold lines have indeed turned into real, honest-to-goodness cracks-- ones that they've actually seen grow larger over time. It's kind of tough for anyone to persuade people that mold lines can get bigger and that it's all just a perfectly normal phenomenon of the manufacturing process, Reality Distortion Field notwithstanding. And now that CNET has picked up the story, this is just more bad news breaking free of the insular confines of the Mac community and escaping into the general tech media at large.
In fact, the noise surrounding the issue of Cube cracks has gotten loud enough that mini-Steve Phil Schiller has seen fit to comment publicly on the controversy. He basically reiterates Apple's official statement-- that mold line are normal, unavoidable, and (above all) not cracks: "Is there a systemic issue that causes anything other than mold lines? Not that we know of." Perhaps that's why the company has reportedly been dissuading posts to its online technical support forum regarding the issue-- Apple's just sick of people going on and on about what it claims is a non-issue.
Or is there something more interesting going on? Apparently those customers who seek to post questions about alleged cracks in their Cubes are being directed away from technical support and towards "customer relations." We all know that Steve Jobs himself called one unhappy Cube customer and offered to replace his cracked unit; is the mass funnelling of frustrated Cube-heads to the customer relations department evidence of some mass damage control scheme? Think Secret, who first broke the story about Cube mold lines coming apart at the seams, now reports that customers who are offered a replacement Cube from Apple are required to sign a nondisclosure agreement stating that they "could not discuss the issue with others or report it to any news source." Hmmm... if that's true, we think it might be a little late to be trying to keep things quiet via a gag order. Still, we're always game for a cover-up; it does wonders for the ratings.
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Just Another Step Closer (9/29/00)
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You know how we've all been hearing for years that Apple is working on an end-run strategy to bypass its retail woes? The tale of Apple retail stores is vying for the "Longest-Lived Unfruitful Rumor" crown, alongside the Disney buyout and the Apple handheld. But get ready to start taking the concept of a brick-and-mortar Apple Store lots more seriously, because when a long-standing rumor hits the mainstream print media, it may be time to start the countdown clock on when it'll finally come true.
Faithful viewer Mark Gangi reports that no less a publication than the Wall Street Journal is chatting up the likelihood of Apple retail outlets, as reported by MacCentral. In addition to the dribs and drabs of evidence that have floated along over the past couple of years (the addition of Gap head honcho Mickey Drexler to Apple's board of directors, the tantalizing reference to the design of Apple's retail outlets in The International Design Magazine, etc.), the Journal seems to have pumped a source for more new information about this proposed Mac shopper's dream. Reportedly Apple is considering opening these stores in "five to ten of the top U.S. markets" (Boston's expected to be on the short list-- allow us to do the Dance of Joy) and is serious enough about the proposition to be actively poaching cow-patterned retail talent from none other than Gateway. Mooooo...
Of course, the plan hasn't been finalized yet, so it may all evaporate before the first store can open, but we're increasingly confident of-- and excited about-- the possibility of walking down Apple's translucent aisles and loading up a cart with the latest goodies. Hopefully within a year or so, at least some of Apple's existing and potential customers who are geographically blessed will have an option more palatable than, for instance, the higher-than-list prices and war zone decor of Sears or the bleak, Beckett-like experience of shopping at the average CompUSA. And here's hoping that if Apple does go ahead with its retail plans, it somehow devises a scheme not to hurt its smaller, dedicated resellers.
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