So Much For That Growth (9/29/00)
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Wuh-oh, sounds like the party might be over... but the drama is just beginning! Remember a few years ago, when you couldn't spit out the window without hitting three journalists calling Apple "beleaguered" and at least one calling it "doomed"? Ah, those were the good old days... Back then, AtAT wrote itself; we never had to scrounge for material, because each and every move Apple made was fraught with audience-pleasing peril. Ever since Apple entered its recent "Golden Age" we've been more hard-pressed for quality angst. Not that there haven't been some great moments of doubt, like this ongoing G4 clock speed drought and that nine-month stretch of no iMac revisions. Still, while those are fine grist for the mill, nothing beats a nice, juicy financial meltdown for quality tech-soap entertainment.

So while we'd much rather have a healthy Apple than a steamy plot twist any day of the week, our ambivalence rating shot through the roof upon reading the news that faithful viewer Jerry O'Neil passed along. According to CNNfn, Apple has issued an earnings warning setting the stage for fourth-quarter financial results that are "substantially below expectations." How far below? Well, CNNfn reports that the analysts' consensus had been for Apple to show a profit of 45 cents per share; instead, money dude Fred Anderson declares that the company will only pull in around 30 to 33 cents per share. That's roughly $110 million versus the previously-expected $165 million. Ouch!

Fred attributed the expected shortfall to a multitude of factors, including a "business slowdown in all geographies" (why are we picturing people in suits moving in slow motion?), slow Education sales in September, and-- perhaps most troubling of all-- G4 Cube sales that are off to a "slower than expected start." Evidently the world at large simply isn't ready to pay more for a computer with fewer features on the spec sheet but lots of unquantifiable niceties like sleekness, silence, and a compact footprint. Hey, what can we say? People lack vision. And $1799 of disposable income.

Meanwhile, just to add to the general Sturm und Drang, Apple's stock price looks like it drove off a cliff. It closed yesterday at about $53, and plummeted to under $30 in after-hours trading. The stock opened at a little over $28, and at broadcast time it had dropped still further to around $27.50. For those of you who have no ethical qualms about profiting off the panicked sell-offs of skittish day-traders (and why would you?), this may be your best chance in years to pick up a boatload of AAPL at such a low price. We're strongly considering it ourselves, but it'll take a little thought, since we generally like to keep our assets liquid in case we get a hankering for new toys. AAPL may be a great investment, but stock certificates aren't nearly as fun to look at as, say, a big-screen TV plugged into a Dreamcast or something.

Anyway, Apple's final quarterly results are scheduled to be released on October 18th after the markets close, so we won't know the full extent of the damage until then. Wait a minute... is the quarter even over yet? We should have until the end of the month to bump up those numbers, right? Everyone run out and buy a Cube on Saturday! If Apple maintains a 25% margin on those eight-inch supercomputers, then by our calculations, the company only needs to sell about 125,000 of them over the course of the next two days to meet its numbers. No problem!

 
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The above scene was taken from the 9/29/00 episode:

September 29, 2000: Bam! And then it was mucilage. Apple's stock sheds half its value overnight following a nasty earnings warning. Meanwhile, Apple still denies any knowledge of a systemic "cracked Cube" problem, but some reports hint that the company is quietly replacing affected units provided the customer agrees to keep mum. And rumors of Apple opening its own retail stores reaches a new level of believability...

Other scenes from that episode:

  • 2581: Gagging On Replacements (9/29/00)   We figure that the last thing Apple needs while its stock price is dropping 50% overnight-- partially due to slow sales of the G4 Cube-- is for this issue about Cube cracks to continue dragging on. Unfortunately, no matter how badly Apple wants the subject closed, it refuses to go away...

  • 2582: Just Another Step Closer (9/29/00)   You know how we've all been hearing for years that Apple is working on an end-run strategy to bypass its retail woes? The tale of Apple retail stores is vying for the "Longest-Lived Unfruitful Rumor" crown, alongside the Disney buyout and the Apple handheld...

Or view the entire episode as originally broadcast...

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