| | July 19, 2000: It's Keynote Day, so take one last look at AtAT's 100% No-Waffling Prediction List before the festivities begin. Meanwhile, Apple beats the analysts yet again, though that revenue's lookin' a little on the thin side, and the AtAT staff discovers the true joy of Amtrak: the ability to use an iBook comfortably while traveling... | | |
But First, A Word From Our Sponsors |
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Sticking To Our Guns (7/19/00)
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Okay, we know most of you won't be tuning in until after The Lovely And Talented Steve Jobs is done wowing the crowd with tales of cubic Macs and ergonomic mice and a new line of Apple-branded kitchen appliances. But seeing as our only chance to broadcast today's episode is before we go wait in line to get into the keynote, you're not going to see anything here that discusses what actually happened at said keynote-- there's a timing issue, dig? So what we thought might be fun would be to tell you our final predictions for what will and will not surface at the keynote, and when you tune in immediately after Steve does his thing, you'll either be wowed by our incredible perspicacity and insight, or wonderfully amused by how absolutely, totally, irretrievably wrong we are. Were. Whatever.
And to make it interesting, we're drawing a line in the virtual TV sand-- no waffling. We imagine you're tired of all these "cautious" lists with disclaimers about how "Apple may change its mind at the last minute" or "sources disagree whether or not this product is ready to make an appearance." Geez, talk about once-bitten-twice-shy syndrome. For instance, did you catch the wording over at Mac OS Rumors a couple of days ago? "...considered neither highly likely nor highly unlikely..." "...nearly break-even chance to a Macworld introduction..." "...discussed but not confirmed..." Well, we'll have none of that hedging here at AtAT, boy howdy. Because we've just gotten ourselves an infallible source, so whatever he says, we're sticking to. And here we go:
- The CubeMac: WITHOUT A DOUBT
- A revised G4 in a wider enclosure: IT IS DECIDEDLY SO
- Multiprocessor G4 systems: MY SOURCES SAY NO
- New iMacs: REPLY HAZY, TRY AGAIN
- New iMacs: YES - DEFINITELY
- New iBooks with FireWire: DON'T COUNT ON IT
- New mouse and keyboard: AS I SEE IT, YES
- Mac OS X public beta: YOU MAY RELY ON IT
- Mac OS 9.5: OUTLOOK NOT SO GOOD
- Apple retail stores: ASK AGAIN LATER
- Apple handheld: CONCENTRATE AND ASK AGAIN
- Apple handheld: VERY DOUBTFUL
- Disney-Apple buyout: OUTLOOK NOT SO GOOD
- Apple retail stores: VERY DOUBTFUL
- Steve's home planet has seized control of the U.S. military: IT IS DECIDEDLY SO
So there you have it. Our pre-keynote predictions, which we're 100% confident will all come true exactly as stated, no ifs, ands, or D'oh!s. Yes, we're that sure of our new source. He doesn't say much, and he refuses to identify himself as anything other than "Number 8," but man, does he ever inspire confidence!
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It's A Twelve-Peat (7/19/00)
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Chalk up another one for Fred and the gang; according to an Apple press release, last quarter marked Apple's eleventh consecutive one in the black. And by our count, that makes it twelve consecutive Street-beating quarters, proving once again that underestimating Apple is a national pastime on par with baseball and filing frivolous lawsuits. Oh yeah, the numbers-- Apple posted a profit of $200 million; however, as per the tradition, a sizeable chunk of that was due to the sale of another batch of ARM stock, so Apple's real profit was $163 million excluding one-time charges and gains. Not too shabby, right? Especially since those know-it-all analysts were predicting about $20 million less.
Don't go all goofy just yet, though-- the news wasn't all good. According to ZDII Inter@ctive Investor, while Apple's Q3 sales were $1.83 billion-- up 17% from the same quarter a year ago-- that number was sadly a bit lower from the $1.9 billion that analysts were expecting. (Sounds like iMac sales were even softer than anyone anticipated.) As a result, Apple's stock fell almost four whole points in after-hours trading. Hopefully when Steve struts his Expo stuff, he'll announce enough kick-ass gear to drive that price back up again.
But anyway, ours is not to analyze the ins and outs of Apple's quarterly results and consider their cumulative effect on the company's stock price; our job is to congratulate those Beat The Analysts contestants who trounced the bigwigs on Wall Street with their estimates. So, without further ado, let's all give a big hand to Eric Ku and Gabriel Matthews, both of whom guessed Apple's Q3 results on the nose. Way to go, guys! They'll be hearing from the AtAT Prize Patrol soon. Meanwhile, be sure to take a look at the final results, which contain lots of interesting little factoids about how AtAT viewers did better than Wall Street. Thanks to all of you who took the time to enter. And don't be bummed that you lost-- there's always next quarter.
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Back On The Train, Gang (7/19/00)
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You know, this particular episode was produced as our corporeal forms passed through four of these United States as we wound our way to the annual Mac Mecca at the Javits Center, and we can honestly say that this has been the least stressful trip we've taken down here. The year of the first New York Expo, we drove, figuring that four hours from Boston to NYC would be a cakewalk, right? Except that-- silly us-- not having visited New York before, we made the admittedly ludicrous assumption that hotels there would have a place for guests to park their vehicles. Not so. In fact, there's nowhere to park in Manhattan that doesn't charge by the nanosecond, not counting that terrific "Seventy Bucks And The Limb Of Your Choice" daily rate. So our cunning plan to save money on airfare simply shifted our travel budget laterally into a parking expense instead.
Then last year we figured, hey, let's fly in. True, the shuttle flight costs a bit more than driving in and parking the car for a week in Honest Ted's Discount Car Hole, but we figured we'd save on stress-- the stress of forcing one's vehicle through Manhattan traffic (which is harrowing even for a veteran of Boston driving conditions), as well as the stress of paying exorbitant rent just to stow said vehicle in a structure that inspires no more confidence in the car's safety than leaving it unlocked and running in an iffy neighborhood with a sign in the window that says, "Radio? Heck, we've got a STACK OF GOLD BARS IN HERE!!!" Unfortunately, we failed to reckon for the compensating stress (as well as the cost) of having to get between LaGuardia and Manhattan. Twice. It's a reasonably hefty cab fare, and this all doesn't even factor in the universally acknowledged fact that airports are the single most stress-inducing structures on the planet. Don't get us wrong; we didn't have any particularly nightmarish experience or anything. It's just that dealing with the hassle of getting to and from two international airports, dealing with airport parking, the x-ray machines, baggage check, irate cabbies, and the other perils inherent in this mode of travel only to spend less than an hour in the air seems, well, kinda dorky.
So this year we decided to take the train. Now, we hadn't dealt with Amtrak in years-- and never on a trip that was more than a couple of hours long. We had gotten so used to flying for our respective day jobs, trips home for the holidays, etc. that certain serious benefits of Iron Horse travel had escaped our attention. For one thing, there's no security check-- meaning you don't have to keep telling yourself that x-rays don't harm computer equipment as you send your laptop (read: your entire life) through the dark, scary tunnel. You also don't have to empty your pocket change, house keys, wrist watch, wedding ring, PDA, pager, cell phone, commemorative Elvis belt buckle, wallet chain, and dental fillings into a little cup-- only to have the metal detector get sprung by a stray atom of iron that spontaneously attached itself to your left shoe, thus introducing you to the wonders of the body cavity search.
But wait, it gets better! There's no baggage check and, therefore, no baggage claim; you don't have to stomach that sinking feeling when most of the people on your flight have gone merrily on their way, encumbered with various pieces of luggage, while you yourself are standing there wondering whether your clothes are enjoying their unscheduled vacation in Guam. There are also no mandatory seatbelts, no pre-flight safety demonstration, and no overhead bins to squeeze shut. And if the worst happens, instead of dying in a horrible plane crash, you perish in a twisted, screeching derailment-- much less stressful. Best of all, working on an iBook in a coach-class jet seat is well-nigh impossible, but the extra legroom on the train makes iBook use a perfectly comfortable activity. And get this-- there's even a 120v power outlet just under the window in case you start to run out of juice. It's a Mac road warrior's dream.
So there it is; our unsolicited thumbs-up for traveling by train. Sure, it takes longer-- five hours total, in our case-- but those hours are a lot more pleasant, productive, restful, and fun. If for no other reason than getting a comfortable computing environment complete with A/C outlet, we suggest you consider it the next time you have a relatively short trip scheduled. Now, please excuse us; we're going to put the iBook to sleep and watch Connecticut pass us by.
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