Growth Is In the Air (1/11/99)
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How about that AAPL, huh? Believe us, we at AtAT are not financial wizards, nor do we claim to have any real knowledge about what the stock market is or how it works. (It's a place where you can buy a lot of soup, right?) But even high-finance ignoramuses like us are at least vaguely aware that when a company's stock price goes up, that's generally a good thing. That's why we keep a fairly close watch on Apple's stock, even though we don't own a single share between us. Over the last few trading days, AAPL hit a new year high of over $46-- that's actually a three-year high, and not far off from the five-year high of $50 or so. And it's way better than the year low of $17 or whatnot.

So the big question in our minds is, what'll happen to the stock price after Apple releases its latest quarterly financial results on Wednesday? We know they'll post a profit-- Steve Jobs revealed as much during his keynote address, and really, could you expect otherwise after the phenomenal success of the iMac? But just how much of a profit are we talking about? It's important to note that Apple's previous four profitable quarters were achieved largely through cost-cutting moves, and not from any actual sales growth. This time, though, it looks like Apple might be posting its first profit in a good long while that is directly attributable to increased sales. As analyst Andrew Neff of Bear Stearns puts it, "if [Apple] can make money when they're shrinking, they're in a really good position when they are growing." A Reuters article has more on the mystery numbers.

According to the article, analysts seem to be predicting a profit of 66 to 69 cents a share-- roughly $83 to $88 million. Maybe it's just us, but that sounds a little low. If you think you've got your financial analysis mojo working, make sure you enter your best guess in the quarterly Beat the Analysts contest. You just might win fame, fortune, and a high-level job at a major securities firm. More likely, though, you'll get your name mentioned on AtAT and win some cheesy piece of Mac software that was buried long ago in our Baffling Vault of Antiquity™. Still, there's also that sense of satisfaction at having beat out those high-priced analysts without the benefit of years of training or, say, a paycheck. Er, well, it's sort of satisfying, at any rate...

 
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The above scene was taken from the 1/11/99 episode:

January 11, 1999: Wall Street holds its breath as Apple prepares to reveal the details of its fifth consecutive profitable quarter. Meanwhile, the first data about the relative popularity of the new iMac colors becomes available, and "Redmond Justice" temporarily becomes a private performance...

Other scenes from that episode:

  • 1260: Most Popular Flavor (1/11/99)   So yeah, Apple's about to announce its fifth consecutive quarterly profit, and the iMac is largely responsible. What's not to like? It's small, powerful, friendly, and now it comes in five fruit flavors...

  • 1261: Judicial Control Lockout (1/11/99)   Denied! Suddenly, "Redmond Justice" has turned into a private performance, barring access to the hordes of fans who follow the court drama with an almost religious fervor. As the government's twelfth and final witness testifies that Microsoft has the power to set its prices as high as it pleases, PC manufacturers like Dell and Compaq blanched at the prospect that making evidence about pricing available to the public could wreak no small amount of havoc on their business...

Or view the entire episode as originally broadcast...

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