Will A Downgrade Help? (9/28/99)
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Wow, Apple's stock performance for the past week and a half is really bringing us back. An earnings warning started the first big drop, concerns about the Taiwan quake dragged it down farther, and AAPL just can't seem to regain any upward momentum. It almost feels like the Bad Old Days, doesn't it? Of course, things are a bit different now compared to three years ago. For one thing, Apple's earnings warning projects a lower-than-expected profit instead of a six-figure loss. And for another thing, even the most stalwart Apple-bashers are going to find it tough to blame the company for causing an earthquake (though we could name some columnists who might be able to pull it off).

Still, the downward slide continues, and most recently it's been accelerated by an analyst who, ironically enough, was reiterating his "buy" rating on AAPL. (Gee, thanks for nothing, buddy.) According to a CNET article, analyst Michael Kwatinez of Credit Suisse First Boston still considers the stock a "buy" even though he expects the massive power outages associated with the quake in Taiwan may result in "a shortfall of about 10,000" made-in-Taiwan iBooks, plus a big empty space on the warehouse floor where 15,000 Powerbook G3s should be sitting. Unsurprisingly, the Street seems to have ignored the repeated "buy" and focused on the laptop shortfall instead. Consequently, despite an AAPL upgrade to "buy" from Banc America, the stock's price continues to slide downward, having dipped just below 60.

Now, to put things in perspective, while 60 is way down from AAPL's recent high of 80, it's still higher than the price from a couple of months ago. With the iBooks now shipping, the stunning new iMac poised for a big bells-and-whistles introduction, and a Christmas buying season about to start with Apple's strongest consumer product line-up in history, we still expect the stock to reach new highs by the end of the year. Provided, of course, not too many analysts come forward to reiterate their "buy" ratings, which could prove disastrous...

 
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The above scene was taken from the 9/28/99 episode:

September 28, 1999: Sotec "complies" with a Japanese court's injunction barring sales of the "e-one" iMac clone by reaching for the spray paint. Meanwhile, Apple's stock continues to tumble, despite analyst upgrades, and Apple posts the iBook commercials, but a couple of them are missing in action...

Other scenes from that episode:

  • 1809: Japanese Chutzpah (9/28/99)   You know the drill by now, right? Apple introduces a funky blue egg-shaped computer. The rest of the industry laughs it off. Said funky blue egg-shaped computer flies off store shelves and sets sales records...

  • 1811: Barry White Rules (9/28/99)   So the iBooks are shipping. And we don't mean the "Steve Jobs announced it at Apple Expo" kind of shipping-- we mean the kind of shipping that actually results in customers getting iBooks into their hot little hands...

Or view the entire episode as originally broadcast...

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