Hands up, who remembers what happened the last time Apple issued an earnings warning? For those of you with memories almost as short as ours (is this Tuesday or March?), that happened last year, when the company blamed its shortfall on the lack of availability of G4 processors; presumably Motorola couldn't crank out enough G4s to fulfill Apple's demand because it was too busy replacing all of its corporate Macs with Windows systems running its competition's chips instead. Well, in addition to the expected drop in AAPL's price, all the Wall Street analysts rushed to revise their estimates for Apple's end-of-quarter results. And remember what happened? When the day came to make those quarterly results public, Apple surprised the Street by revealing a profit that wasn't quite as bad as it led everyone to believe. In fact, the company beat the analysts' estimates-- the revised estimates, sure, but hey, it still counts.

So here's the thing-- are we in for a repeat performance this time around? This quarter, the analysts had originally been expecting Apple to post a profit of 45 cents per share when the earnings warning hit; when the dust cleared, the consensus estimate for Apple's Q4 results had dropped to 31 cents per share. Apple itself claimed it expected to make between 30 and 33 cents per share. So far so good. But Mac OS Rumors claims to be hearing whispers that Apple's finances aren't nearly as dire as the company led everyone to believe. If the rumors are true, then "Apple's quarterly financial report on the 18th may not be quite so bad as the earnings warning sent out last month suggested." Hmmmm... that sounds oddly familiar somehow. As if, perhaps, a year ago, Apple stated it would make $75-85 million and then posted a profit of $111 million instead.

What do you think? Is it out of the question that Fred Anderson will once again surprise and "delight" the Street with a quarterly profit that exceeds the numbers in the earnings warning by a solid thirty or forty million? Is Steve playing the numbers game again, just to continue his officially unbroken streak of eleven consecutive Street-beating quarters? And if that does happen, will anyone ever trust an Apple earnings warning again? After all, you can only cry "wolf" so many times before the villagers let you get eaten alive.

In any event, it's time for the quarterly AtAT Beat The Analysts contest, so you can take an active role in speculating about Apple's financial shenanigans. Register your own guess as to how Apple's final numbers will look, and if your entry is the closest to the actual posted results, you'll either win a new Mercedes and a guest spot on an episode of Dawson's Creek, or a mention on AtAT, your name on the BTA page for a few months, and a goofy prize from AtAT's Baffling Vault of Antiquity™ (our choice). The contest closes on Tuesday night at 10PM Eastern-- so don't miss this terrific chance at fame and fortune!