Q2: Sunshine And Lollipops (4/19/01)
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And thus were the unbelievers smackethed down: yesterday His Fredness revealed the news to the breathless masses, and lo, it was good. Yes indeedy, people, it's just like the days of old... as confirmed in the company's official press release, Apple positively pummelled the analysts' consensus quarterly profit estimate of a penny a share, instead posting a net profit of $43 million ($40 million not counting one-time losses and gains). That's a recurring profit of eleven cents a share, or a full dime higher than the First Call consensus. Heck, it's even four cents higher than the highest analyst estimate-- and whatever sourpuss in a thousand-dollar suit was betting on a loss of eights cents per share probably feels like a real jackass right about now.

All in all, Apple has a lot to be grinning about. First of all, there's the Street-beating return to profitability made all the more delectable by an economic climate that has most computer companies contemplating sticking their heads in the oven. Then there's the fact that Apple shipped three-quarters of a million Macs last quarter-- not bad at all, considering that consumer demand is supposed to be falling quicker than Bill Gates in a cage match with a starving leopard. Top that all off with a channel inventory down from twelve weeks to four, gross margins up to a surprisingly high 26.9%, and a whopping $4.1 billion pile of cash, and things are looking pretty darn rosy these days. (MacNN has a nice summary of Fred's financial data, if you're an "Info McNugget" kind of person.)

In fact, pretty much the only bad news that penetrated our forty million-dollar euphoria was Fred's lowered guidance for the year's revenues. Back in January he told analysts to expect Apple sales of $6 billion in 2001, but now he's citing "continued uncertainty" about the economy and revising that estimate to $5.6 to 5.8 billion. Still, that's no reason to stop doing your Happy Dance. Remember, these are tough times for everybody in the industry-- and we're hard-pressed to name a single other high-tech company who not only didn't issue an earnings warning prior to its most recent quarterly results, but also trounced the analyst estimates and never announced widespread layoffs. And over $4 billion in the bank? Apple must be one of the healthiest tech companies out there in these troubled times.

So, once again, the doomsayer analysts have to eat crow. (Faithful viewer Nina Tovish even noted that the analysts actually ran out of questions during the Q&A portion of the evening's proceedings, so stunned were they by Apple's return to glory. Howya like them Apples?) Meanwhile, AtAT's viewers also returned to form this quarter, if the final results in the latest Beat The Analysts contest are any indication; not only did Big Winner Adam Jay Cohen nail Apple's reported $40 million profit to the penny (while Wall Street bigwigs were off by a measly, oh, $37 million), but the AtAT average was also lots closer to Apple's final numbers: you folks managed to form a notably accurate "AtAT consensus" of over $36 million. Too bad you're not getting paid for it, hmmm? Ah, well... it's probably just wiser to use your uncanny financial abilities to invest in Apple stock and pay yourselves. After all, we've all seen what working on Wall Street evidently does to people's brains.

 
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The above scene was taken from the 4/19/01 episode:

April 19, 2001: Forty million dollars of sweet, sweet profit... Hallelujah and break out the celebratory bubble pipes. Meanwhile, the Flower Power and Blue Dalmatian sales percentage may be misleadingly low, and we missed Steve on CNBC last night-- but evidently we didn't miss much...

Other scenes from that episode:

  • 3001: Yes, Funky Sells (Probably) (4/19/01)   "No bad news at the conference call?" we hear you asking. "But AtAT, surely you didn't miss that bit about how Flower Power and Blue Dalmatian models only comprised 20% of all iMac sales, right?" Why, no we didn't kiddies-- but we're not at all sure that we should consider that a bummer...

  • 3002: Walkouts And Crystal Balls (4/19/01)   Sadly, we heard about Steve Jobs's probable appearance on CNBC last night too late to tune in and watch; if we had known, we may well have been willing to commit horrible crimes against society in order to be in front of a cable-fed TV when Steve hit the airwaves...

Or view the entire episode as originally broadcast...

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