Break Out That Bubbly (10/13/04)
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Here's a question for you all: when Apple revealed its fourth-quarter financial results this afternoon, which '60s-era Batman show onomatopoeic onscreen sound effect did it make? Because when the news of Apple's astonishing profit first smacked us all upside the noggin with two tons of black ink in a sock, we were pretty sure we saw a "ZOK!", but in hindsight now we're thinking it may have been more of a "KAPOW!" sort of thing. Need an instant replay to refresh your memory? Then clear your mind, reread the original press release, and let us know which word flashed on the screen when it first sunk in that Apple hadn't just beaten analyst expectations, but had actually pummeled them into a fine paste that goes great on a Triscuit.

Yes, faithful viewer wavedancer was first to notify us that whereas the analysts had been expecting Apple to post a Q4 profit of about $70 million, the actual numbers came in at a whopping $106 million, up from $61 million last quarter and $44 million in the same quarter a year ago. Better still, that $106 million takes into account a one-time "after-tax restructuring charge of $4 million," which means that Apple's actual profit from recurring items this past quarter was $110 million. That's roughly 57% higher than the analyst consensus, and about 35% higher than even the single highest estimate of all 21 analysts who wagered a guess.

Believe it or not, though, Apple's profit is actually among the worst news the company revealed today. You know how Apple commonly posts a higher-than-expected profit and then its stock price tanks anyway? Well, not this time, kiddies; in after-hours trading, at least, AAPL was up an additional $2.66 a share to $42.41, and we expect at least some of that gain will carry over tomorrow. Why the additional vote of confidence from Wall Street, you ask? Well, mostly it's a revenue thing, we expect; revenue for the quarter was $2.35 billion, which represents a 37 percent increase from the same quarter a year ago, and according to Steve Jobs himself (yes, he's even back to being quoted in the press releases-- take that, pancreatic cancer!) it was Apple's "highest fourth quarter revenue in nine years."

On top of that, the company sold over two million iPods last quarter, retail store revenue almost doubled, Mac sales increased 6 percent from a year ago, iBook and PowerBook sales in particular are up 74 percent and 21 percent respectively, and the only Mac models that actually declined in units shipped were ones that now use a G5 processor; Apple cites availability problems from IBM as the culprit and expects all G5-based products (with the possible exception of the dual 2.5 GHz Power Mac) to reach a supply-demand balance before the year's up. No wonder Wall Street's all giddy for AAPL tonight.

But back to that profit, because there's the little matter of our quarterly Beat The Analysts contest to resolve. Would you believe that Apple's results even surpassed the typically overoptimistic guesses of the AtAT faithful? Of the 259 last-minute entries, only 9 predicted a Q4 profit higher than Apple actually reported, and three of those were guesses of over $7 billion by entrants who either can't count zeros or can't control their alcohol intake. No one hit the $110 million figure on the nose, but faithful viewer John O'Mara came closest with his prediction of $112 million, so that makes him our Grand Prize Winner. (Yes, we know his guess was higher than Apple's actual reported value. Who do we look like, Bob Barker? Don't answer that.) Congrats and kudos to John, whom we'll be contacting shortly to see about shipping him an AtAT shirt or a Golden Moldie software title from our Baffling Vault of Antiquity™.

Many thanks to all 259 viewers who managed to sneak in an entry before the ten-and-a-half-hour window closed on our Lightning Round, and if you aren't John O'Mara, well, you can always start crunching numbers now for next quarter's contest. Or just look at the new value of your AAPL holdings and giggle.

 
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The above scene was taken from the 10/13/04 episode:

October 13, 2004: Apple posts a nine-figure profit on its biggest Q4 revenues in nine years. Meanwhile, the company announces that six retail "mini-stores" will open this Saturday, and iPod mini clones are coming fast and furious just in time for the holidays...

Other scenes from that episode:

  • 4976: Awww, Wookit How Cute! (10/13/04)   Do you prefer the iPod mini over its big brother in spite of its much lower storage capacity not because its more portable, but just because it looks "cuter"? Does any visit to a supermarket or drug store require twenty minutes of oohing and aahing over the eensy trial-size shampoos and bottles of Scope?...

  • 4977: Send In The Clones (Again) (10/13/04)   In light of the recent revelation that Apple's various iPods and minis hold a disgustingly high 92.1 percent of U.S. market share among sales of hard drive-based portable music players, faithful viewer Jonathan Zhan notes that apparently Apple's rivals have declared this to be Ugly iPod Competitor Week...

Or view the entire episode as originally broadcast...

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