Wall Street Doom & Gloom (1/17/01)
|

|
|  |
Today's the day: Black Wednesday. Or should that be Red Wednesday? Once the markets close, Apple money dude Fred Anderson will get on the horn and announce just how scary Apple's fourth fiscal quarter turned out to be-- and given that Apple has already predicted a loss of up to a quarter of a billion dollars, the analysts in on the conference call are likely going to have red ink spurting out of their headset phones. (Want to feel like a big-shot Wall Street analyst for an hour or so? Then make sure to tune in to the live broadcast of the call at 5PM EST; all you need is QuickTime, an Internet connection, and the ability to pretend you know lots more about money than mere mortals.)
Here's the truly frightening thing: CNET reports that at least some analysts are actually predicting worse news than even the dire picture Apple painted in its infamous press release last month. You may recall that Apple's stated reason for the enormous scope of its first loss in three years was because the company prefers to take all of its lumps at once and immediately get back on track; Steve went so far as to say that Apple would return to profitability this quarter (Q2, January through March). But analyst Richard Gardner of Salomon Smith Barney isn't so sure; he admits that he's "impressed with Apple's new products" launched last week, but that hasn't changed his opinion that "the company suffers from a channel inventory overhang of existing products and that March quarter guidance will be reduced again." In other words, he expects Fred to pass the ball to Steve, who will try to put the best possible spin on the news that, no, Apple won't be back in the black as soon as the end of March.
Worse yet, Steven Fortuna of Merrill Lynch concurs: SuperDrives, titanium, and better clock speeds notwithstanding, he's not convinced that "the near-to-medium-term prospects for the company are any brighter than previously thought." Steven... you're bringing us down, man! Clearly these analysts have developed some sort of tolerance for Reality Distortion Field energy, which may spell trouble for Steve and his beleaguered band of rag-tag Mac-makers. All this negativity must be affecting Apple's karmic alignment-- or maybe it's throwing Steve's RDF out of whack. In any case, we're concerned that the analysts' collective pessimism will become a self-fulfilling prophecy, and Apple will be forced to extend its unprofitable streak for at least another quarter. If that really turns out to be the case, then clearly the analysts must be stopped. Perhaps next quarter, instead of our usual "Beat The Analysts" contest, we'll adapt slightly and go with "Beat The Analysts With Heavy Blunt Instruments" instead.
|  |
| |
 |
SceneLink (2802)
|  |
 |
And Now For A Word From Our Sponsors |
| | |
 |
|  |
 |
 |  | The above scene was taken from the 1/17/01 episode: January 17, 2001: This is it: the moment of truth. Is Apple past the worst of its problems, or are the analysts right to be pessimistic? Meanwhile, rumors fly about the next iMacs to emerge from Apple's labs, and iTunes is number one with a bullet, with over 275,000 downloads in its first week on the 'net...
Other scenes from that episode: 2803: The Next Hip Thing In iVille (1/17/01) Okay, so the analysts aren't all that excited about Apple's new hardware. Fair enough. After all, it's all professional-grade equipment, and Apple's big rebound in 1998 came from a consumer revolution: the iMac... 2804: Install. Listen. Watch. BUY! (1/17/01) Meanwhile, despite the fact that its CD-burning feature is currently only supported on those brand new Power Macs just unveiled last week, iTunes is going great guns. According to an Apple press release first pointed out to us by faithful viewer David Triska, the do-everything "digital hub" audio software was downloaded over 275,000 times in its first week of availability...
Or view the entire episode as originally broadcast... |  |  |
|
|