You Can't Hit Me; I'm Catlike (7/11/01)
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Price war, shmice war-- at least, that's what Apple may be saying next week. We've already mentioned pundit Tim Bajarin's recent opinion that once the slaughter is over, most of the surviving PC manufacturers will have abandoned the consumer market for the colder cash of sales to Big Business, leaving Apple and Sony to slug it out for the attention of the average shmoe. But that's long-term; what about the near future? Well, other analysts are now flat-out stating that while most of those Wintel cloners are climbing over each others' dead and mangled bodies to keep afloat in this unfriendly buying climate, Apple may escape from the current price war "unscathed."

That's right, do your worst, Failing Dotconomy; according to a Macworld UK article, despite the "lack of improvement in global PC demand," UBS Warburg analyst Don Young believes that Apple may come out of this tussle "in good health." And Morgan Stanley Dean Witter figures that when Fred Anderson reveals Apple's Q3 financial results next Tuesday, the company will report "revenues at or slightly below $1.6 billion"-- a feat that the analysts are calling "a good result in a very tough market," assuming Apple actually hits those numbers, of course. While other major computer manufacturers are getting hammered, Apple seems to be dodging financial bullets Matrix-style.

Indeed, when last we checked, the analyst consensus prediction for Apple's Q3 results is for a profit of $50 million; in this market, that's nothing to sneeze at. Perhaps even more impressive is that of the sixteen analysts who have issued estimates, not a single one is expecting a loss. The range of guesses runs from about $20 million to $87 million in pure, unadulterated black ink. Given the state of the economy and the typically very negative vibe most of these analysts give off when it comes to all things Apple, you can safely consider this a virtual love-in. Of course, that's only going to make things that much worse if Apple doesn't meet expectations... but hey, we have faith in Fred. He's the Mac Daddy of all things cashlike.

Speaking of quarterly earnings and analyst expectations, it's time once again for our thrilling Beat The Analysts contest. Enter your guess of how Apple's going to do excluding one-time charges and gains, and if yours is the closest entry, you'll win one of those shiny new AtAT t-shirts you've been hearing so little about-- or a prize from our Baffling Vault of Antiquity™, if shrink-wrapped copies of ancient cheesy software is more your thing. Enter soon, because we're closing the contest on Monday night in preparation for Tuesday's conference call. Good luck!

 
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The above scene was taken from the 7/11/01 episode:

July 11, 2001: The debate over authenticity of the G4 "spy photos" rages unabated, even as Apple allegedly demands the removal of the controversial images. Meanwhile, financial analysts appear to be giving Apple the benefit of the doubt just prior to next week's quarterly earnings report, and both major Mac magazines have announced new bigwigs, presaging cosmic upheaval at next week's Expo...

Other scenes from that episode:

  • 3169: Let's Call The Whole Thing Off (7/11/01)   Wow, little did we know that a few blurry spy photos allegedly revealing next week's new Power Macs would ignite such a firestorm of international controversy. Evidently everyone's a little on edge in this final week before the Stevenote...

  • 3171: Two Ri(c)ks, No Waiting (7/11/01)   "And lo, there was a great earthquake; and the sun became black as sackcloth of hair, and the moon became as blood; and the staffs of the Two Mag Rags were thrown into disarray." Will next week's Stevenote therefore mark the end of the world?...

Or view the entire episode as originally broadcast...

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